Yesterday I received an email showing all the Realtors in the state ranked by their volume of sales this year. Out of over 2300 agents, I was number 75, about the top 3%.

Praise God for his blessings!

I will be on HGTV's My House is Worth What? today at noon and several more times over the next few months. Watch for 4 episodes that show homes in Aina Haina, Kailua, and Hawaii Kai

The shows feature me and Kendra Todd, winner of The Apprentice, looking at homes that have been renovated. I am brought in as the real estate 'expert' who gives the home owner the good or bad news about their current home value.

I hope I got your attention with that headline. Recently there has been a lot of talk about Dr Horton/Schuler's plans to build 12,000-15,000 more homes on the farmland between Ewa and Kapolei.

Their website says, "Ho'opili... is a master planned community that will connect Ewa Beach, Waipahu, Makakilo & Kapolei. Currently in the planning stages, Ho'opili will feature a mix of affordable & market rate homes with approximately 10,000 to 15,000 homes planned. This master planned community will feature schools, commercial centers and other community amenities."

Last week the Land Use commission voted 5-3 against the project, while residents in the area grow more and more opposed to it.

There are about 789 reasons that this project should never be built, and here are just a few:

1. They need to destroy very productive agricultural soil that has with lots of sun, gentle winds and cheap water. Produce here is expensive enough without destroying more farms in Oahu.
2. The H-1 freeway from Aiea to Kapolei is completely congested during rush hours. This project would make the traffic unbearable, which in turn will make living in Kapolei unbearable, which in turn will make housing prices in Kapolei collapse.  
3. There are already more than 30,000 homes in the Leeward area already zoned for construction.  We do not need more.
4. We are already low on water, land fill for trash, and power. We simply do not have the infrastructure to add that many more homes on top of what is already planned.
5. "Affordable" housing in Hawaii still means homes in the $300k-$400k range. We already have plenty of homes in that price range just down the road in Ewa, and farther over in Maili. 
6. NOBODY in that area wants this project done.  Everyone I have spoken to is against it.

Listen up Schuler - nobody wants this project built! Take action - go sign the petition at the Stop Hoopoli website.

Let's keep it simple, the Hawaii real estate market overall has declined, and seems to have hit a bottom. Here are areas in and around Honolulu where prices actually ROSE since August last year:

• Aina Haina (My neighborhood) up 21.4%
• Hawaii Kai, up 4.7%
• Kailua, up 0.6%
• Windward Coast, up 7.4%
• Wahiawa, up 14.8%
• Ewa Plain, up 0.7%

Not surprisingly, the North Shore and Kahala got hammered, down 44% and 46%.  Why? Because those buyers are often from California, and California's is so horrible that the state cannot even pay tax refunds. In 2007, over 80% of the buyers on the North Shore were from California.

Also not surprising (to me at least), were the number of sales. While overall number of sales year to date is down 15.6%, the month to month comparison is only down 3.1% compared to August '08, they are actually up in some areas, which is why sales are about flat compared to last August, with 247 sales compared to 255 sales.

I confirmed it again yesterday by driving to Ewa beach at 4pm. There is no more traffic there. The drive down Ft Weaver, which used to make me want to gouge out my eyes, is now a pleasant drive going about 35 mph the whole way. 

I have posted about this before but yesterday as I was driving back to my home on the East Side, I realized that the lack of traffic is now going to make the values in Ewa level out with the homes in Royal Kunia, Westloch, Makakilo, and Kapolei. 

Total drive time from my house to Ewa Beach at 4pm Monday = 40 minutes. 

Total time on Ft Weaver = under 10 minutes.

I'm not usually the type to make predictions about the future, but in this case I'm just observing what I saw in the past month.  In August I had several buyers shopping for homes all over the island. From Ewa Beach and Kapolei to Pearl City and over to Hawaii Kai, Kailua, and the North Shore.  I put a lot of miles on my car.

And the thing that I found everywhere was that there were very few properties available under $1million, and the good ones get picked up quickly.  I viewed listings one day after they came on the market, only to find that they were sold a couple days later, while my clients were still thikning. 

So what will the housing report say when it comes out tomorrow?  The numbers will point to even lower inventory in Ewa and Kapolei, with higher numbers of homes in pending status. They will show a higher number of homes sold than all of this year, with prices actually RISING in some parts of the island.

Yes that's right, price will RISE in West Oahu, where they fell unreasonably low very quickly last year. Now this is just based on my personal experience with my own buyers and sellers, all of whom found the market to be picking up. 

I just closed on a home in Royal Kunia with this beautiful kitchen - multiple offers for $612,300. Some people thought I was crazy because it seemed above the comparble sales. But in the end, a home is worth whatever a buyer will pay for it. The appraisers just try to find comparable sales for whatever the buyer has agreed to pay.  No wonder almost all appraisals come in at exactly the sale price. 

Bottom line - the market picked up in August, you'll see tomorrow in the numbers, but I saw it all month in real life.  In contract negotiations, in shopping for homes, in everything I did, I saw a market that was going UP, not down.

There is nothing like buying a brand new home.  It's better than a new car, and even comes with its own distinctive just built new-house smell.  In the previous post I mentioned Hale Alii in Hawaii Kai, but there are a few other options as well, all on the West side of Oahu.

In Kapolei there is Kahiwelo by Schuller homes, a division of Dr Horton. It's a nice neighborhood of single family homes overlooking Kapolei and the ocean. Some are a little too close to the freeway, but the rest have a great view of the Ewa Plain and Pearl Harbor in the distance. The homes are around $600k-$700k, and about 1700-1900sqft with as many as 4 bedrooms.  I've purchased 2 homes from DR Horton in the past, and they were both very nicely constructed.

Also in Kapolei is another Schuller offering called Nanale at Mehana, a townhome community with units as large as about 1900sqft. I went by there the other day and saw the models. Nicely upgraded units but very small closets.  For around $450-$480k, they are a good deal and there is nothing quite like them for sale out there. 

Way out on the Waianae Coast, in Maili, is Schuller's Sea Country project, single family homes and attached homes around $400-$600k.  Nice newly neighborhood with a park and general store.  Great beach there, especially after the city cleaned it up this year.

In Ewa Beach, Gentry has 4 projects: Tides, Latitudes, Haleakea, and Cypress point, in order of ascending prices.  Tides start around $400k, and Cypress point goes up to about a million dollars.  They have now started putting free solar panels on the houses and paying for all the lanscaping as the market slowed.  Now all of a sudden with very little inventory, these new homes may be your best option in Ewa.

Also in Ewa is Haseko's continuation of Ocean Pointe, called Ka Makana.  Complete with private golf course and soon to come (hopefully) marina resort, it is the next big thing in Ewa. And since the road widening project has all but eliminated the traffic in Ewa, Ka Makana is a great option for those looking for a brand new home between $400k-$900k.  They have homes as small as 1200sqft and as large as 3000sqft.  I have always thought Haseko builds great homes, with very nice floorplans and upgrades.

There is also the long awaited rumor of some townhomes to be built in Kailua by Schuller homes someday, but that remains to be seen.  Who knows when that will come, but I'm sure they will sell out fast in any market.

After years of heated debate at the Hawaii Kai neighborhood board, Hale Alii at Hawaii Kai is finally coming.

I received the invitaion to THE GRAND OPENING of the sales gallery this weekend.  Even though they will be serving food and offering free valet, I won't be going.  Why?  Because the building won't be done for another 2 years...   But you can still get a reservation for phase 1, which is 68 luxury condos.

The complex will feature a 2 acre park, a sand edge swimming pool, gazebo, and lagoon style waterways and pond.  And if that's not enough - Private Wine Storage facility, spa, excercise room, sauna, steam room, and an entertainment lounge.

The lounge will feature a karaoke stage, billiards, and two music rooms for musicians! The building will have concierge services and round the clock security.

With an average of over 2100sqft, these are going to be about the largest condos in Hawaii Kai. Prices are not published yet, but I've heard they will start at $1million.

I have a few buyers looking for homes right now, and I'm shocked to see hardly any homes available out there. Our inventory is at a 3 year low right now, and even for buyers with about $700k, it's very hard to find a decent home. I thought I was going to have at least 10 homes to show a buyer tomorrow, but  turns out there are only 6 in the area they want!

For some reason, there are few people selling right now.  That may be an indicator of the market starting to rebound. I see a lot of homes in escrow, but very few for sale. 

As of August 1st, we had fewer homes for sale than any month in 2008, and going back to Spring 07. That's a great sign for our market, but makes it tough to be a buyer right now. 

Rates are low and people are just tired of hearing about the market being bad. Lots of buyers contacting me recently for homes betwee  $1-10million. 

Thanks for the kind emails from people who heard me on the radio. I was on KHBH 830AM on "Get down to Small Business" Saturday with host Ken Becker, talking about real estate, lending, and how the housing market effects small business.

Great show and you should tune in every Saturday at 11am.