The Fed stopped buying bonds, which means mortgage rates are up, but there won't be a double dip in housing according to an article in Forbes today.  Not sure if I agree or not, but the article is certainly compelling.

They state 5 reasons: 

First, the Fed is not planning on suddenly selling its holdings.

Second, they do not expect mortgage rates to suddenly spike as the Fed exits the market. Today, even though the Fed has ended its program of purchases, the "spread" between mortgage rates and the 10-year is only 120 basis points. Mortgage lenders are not having trouble finding the funds they need to lend.

Third, the amount of lending necessary to support the housing market in the next year is not particularly large by historical standards. 

If existing homes sell at a 5.75 million rate in the next 12 months (a 10% increase vs. the previous 12 months), that should require about $230 billion in net new lending. Meanwhile, new home sales should require about another $90 billion. (New homes average $275,000, assuming 20% down and sales equal to 400,000.)

Fourth, housing prices have fallen below fair value. Relative to rents, national average home prices are about 10% below fair value and have been the lowest relative to replacement cost in more than 30 years.

Fifth, and perhaps most important, the labor market--the last of the lagging economic indicators--has finally fallen into place as a positive for the economy. Private sector payrolls increased 123,000 in March (198,000 including upward revisions to prior months). Meanwhile, civilian employment, an alternative measure of jobs that includes the self-employed and startup businesses, is up 1.36 million in the past three months, the most for any three-month period since 1994.

Last week my clients Dustin and Leslie purchased a beautiful Moana Kai townhome in Hawaii Kai.  This complex is really popular right now - as another client of mine is now buying a beautiful unit to close later this month.

This unit has newly installed travertine tile floors, giving it a very elegant look.  Check out the kitchen with granite counters. 

Listed for $645k, this townhome has over 1760sqft, 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a large loft that can be a family room or office.  

Moana Kai is just about the best deal for newish condos in Hawaii Kai.  Just below is Nanea Kai, but there has hardly been anything for sale in there for a long time.  

Congrats to Justin and Shannon for buying a great home and for their soon coming baby!  They'll be moving in just in time to decorate and get setteled before the new addition arrives.  

I just saw this article in the Star Bulletin, and WOW I am impressed.  This is written by the director of the Hawaii Tax Department, and it is awesome! Some excerpts:

"The
proposed tax hike is one of the largest in state history. Raising the
GET from 4 percent to 5 percent would significantly impede Hawaii's
economic recovery because of the GET's broad reach. In a nutshell, this
proposed tax increase would remove roughly $500 million from Hawaii's
economy every year. As the saying goes, the GET taxes "anything that
moves" — including rent, food, clothing, gas, nonprescription medicine
and doctor visits"

"The poor, who have
the least ability to pay the tax on ordinary daily transactions and
have to spend nearly all of their funds to survive, would be hit
hardest. All businesses in Hawaii also would feel the impact as they
purchase goods, services and rent. Sales would slow, consumers will pay
more and jobs will be lost."

"For
the past year, the Lingle-Aiona administration has been working
vigorously to spur Hawaii's economic recovery. But with a 25 percent
state GET tax increase, Hawaii's hope of rounding the corner in the
near future will be stalled."

Right on KURT!  You rock! You get it! 

PBN reported this morning that Honolulu residents are No. 1 in the use of energy-saving appliances, according to a Scarborough Research survey of 81 U.S. cities.

Forty percent of Honolulu households use "green appliances, the study found. Nationally, about a third of households use energy-saving appliances.

Next highest were Portland, Ore., (39 percent) and the San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose area (38 percent).

Related - Hawaii home owners love Solar Energy.  I have 18 Photovoltaic panels and 2 solar hot water panels.  See my solar energy system here.

Next week the government will stop propping up the mortgage-backed securities market.  I posted about this a few weeks ago, citing the article in the Washington Post which explains that the government is about to stop spending billions of dollars buying its own bonds.

The Treasury spent about $220 billion, and the Fed pledged $1.25 trillion, the largest foray the central bank has made into the markets since the onset of the crisis, which they brought upon themselves through the "community reinvestment act" of Carter and later Clinton.

The Fed has been printing money and funneling it to people looking to buy a house or refinance an existing mortgage.  Most certainly treasury prices will fall, and rates will go up at least a little, if not a lot, within 2 weeks from today.

Lock in your mortgage rate now.  Do it.

I have a better way to predict the real estate market than any economist on Earth.  It's more accurate than anything that a group of Ph.D.'s can come up with by crunching numbers and data. It has nothing to do with stocks, economics, currency markets, the price of oil, or the price of anything at all.  It doesn't even have to do with the inventory of homes. I have a data set that, when it's all said and done, is the only set of 'data' that matters.  This magical predictor is called - clients. 

By about this time each year, I already know who about 70% of my buyers and sellers are going to be. I've been talking to them for months, some of them years, searching for properties, finalizing moving plans, and setting dates to go home shopping. Some of them call me 2 years in advance to let me know what they are going to be doing and when.  

As of today, March 20th, I can already tell you that this year's volume will be about 50% more than last year (which by the way was a great year.) Today I have appointments set in April and May.  Today I am speaking to buyers who will be moving here late summer.  Today I also have sellers who plan to sell in the fall.  

The economists don't know these people.  Market predictors don't have my client's names and numbers, moving dates, and price ranges - but I do.  

I know the future in March of every year, and 2010 is going to be huge.  

We were (and are) in escrow on the house at 1816 Kilohi st, but the buyer is getting cold feet.  So we have put the house back on the market at a price that is $30k higher - $580k!

Why so much higher? Simple, we had tons of interest,  received multiple offers, and they were up to $580k! 

So if you missed out the first time, here it is again.  I looked through all the listings in Honolulu, and let me tell you, this is the best house for the money out there! 

I'm tired of my buyers missing out on houses they want to buy.  I'm tired of being outbid, being the 4th offer in, being the one that missed out.  

I have decided as of today, I am no longer going to be the no-pressure-buyer's agent.

From today on, if a buyer tells me they want to buy a house, I will say it up front - You need to move fast, maybe offer above asking, and do it TODAY. You need to stop delaying, stop making excuses, stop living in fear, and ACT NOW! 

• Last week a client of mine missed out on a beautiful water front house for $1.3 million. It sold that night, all cash, full price.
• 3 weeks ago a client of mine missed out on a bank owned property for $575k. She hesitated, wanted to offer below asking price (against my advice,) and the house sold for full price 3 days after we viewed it. She cried.
• This morning I found out that a house for $460k in Ocean Pointe received multiple offers above asking and sold 2 days after it came on the market.  My clients were hesitating. 
• Last month a buyer of mine waited a few days before viewing the marina front Kuapa Isle Townhouse he had been waiting for.  Nothing had been on the market for months, and the unit sold in 3 days, full price.  

I could go on and on. Every listing I have had this year has received multiple offers.  Every buyer I have worked with has missed out on multiple listings.

That's it buyers. The warning is out there.  You will act now, write an offer, probably full price, or you will miss out and you will be looking for another house. It's that simple. 

(Note - In 2003 I was one of the few real estate agents telling everyone to get out of real estate)

Yesterday I showed this beautiful house in Queens gate that is listed for $925,000.  With 4 bedrooms, a pool, and a huge master bathroom, it had everything the buyers were looking for. 

We had a nice discussion about buying a house right now.  I thought there were some great insights, which leads me to pose a question:

If you aren't buying right now, WHAT EXACTLY ARE YOU WAITING FOR?

• Lower interest rates? 
• A housing bubble?
• A massive economic collapse? 
• 10% unemployment?
• Home prices to fall 20% ? 
• Inflation?  (prices of houses go up too, you know)  
• Global financial chaos?
• Dozens of bank failures?
• Government takeover of Fannie Mae?

ALL OF THAT ALREADY HAPPENED! 

We literally just endured the biggest financial collapse in our generation, and Hawaii real estate prices dropped about 15-20%. Is there some other worse event that could make prices drop more?  If so, what would that be?  The collapse of giant insurance companies?  Done. 

The US Government printing billions of dollars?  Done!  Financial chaos on a global level?  DONE!!! 

Some will argue that we aren't yet at the bottom of the housing market, and I would ask those people - What horrible event will occur that hasn't already???