It's the Christmas season, time to buy gifts, spread cheer, and mostly, focus on the birth of Jesus.  With all the Christmas parties, recitals, and other events, you wouldn't expect people to be doing extremely time consuming and stressfull like - buying a house.

But the statistics show that hundreds of people buy a house on Oahu every December. Around the country, tens of thousands of people will buy a house around Christmas.  And you may not have thought about it but - many sellers are most desperate in December. 

Sellers on the market in December realize it's a bad month for sales.  It's true that December is one of the slowest months of the year for new escrows.  But some sellers are hoping to get their home sold before the new year. Some are needing to move before school starts back up.  Some are just waiting for a showing at all, and because it's Christmas, there aren't any. 

But buyers who are out in December know that sellers are feeling the pinch of the closing calendar year...  And they take advantage.  Sellers are almost always more willing to negotiate when they feel the market is against them. When sellers think they won't get a showing for a few more weeks, they're more likely to take a lower offer.  

I've seen it in person - the holiday season is scary for sellers. They avoid being on the market if they can. Some sellers will take their home off the market for Christmas, which I think is not smart.  There are always some buyers out there.  Being off the market means you will miss some potential showings.

So if you're shopping for a home this month - be aggressive!  There aren't too many home buyers  in December, but you can bet, just like every year, there will be a sharp rise in buyer in January.  

Mortimer Zuckerman is the editor in chief of U.S. News & World Report, and the chairman and co-publisher of the New York Daily News.  He is the chairman of Boston Properties and has extensive real estate holdings across the U.S., and he  is currently ranked as the 182nd-richest man in America on the Forbes 400.

I was reading an interesting interview of Zuckerman in Forbes, in which he talks about how he has managed to pull off so much success in commerical real estate over the past couple years. The most interesting thing he mentions applies pretty directly to Oahu real estate, though Zuckerman doesn't own property here (yet.) 

He says, "I think that the real estate market is really made up of many markets. Boston Properties is in a very few selective markets, all of which are what we describe as supply-constrained. Washington, for example, is constrained because it has height limits and sites are very difficult to acquire. Cambridge, because sites are impossible to acquire. In Boston, we're mainly in the Back Bay, which is sort of like the Upper East Side of New York, where again it is very difficult to acquire sites and build major buildings."

So why has Oahu real estate done so well in the last 5 years?  Why haven't we seen price huge decreases like other areas?  Simple: supply.  There just isn't enough land on the island of Oahu for the 1 million people who live here.  There is hardly vacant land that can be developed for residential use.  Sure there is a lot of vacant preservation land, conservation land, and agricultural land, residential and commercial land is nearly gone.  In Honolulu, it IS gone. The only place you can find any substantial land for development anymore is in Kapolei.

Oahu isn't getting any bigger, but the population is continuing to grow.  Do the math.

The Oahu real estate sales numbers were released this week, and as many people predicted, there was a large drop in some numbers, especially in condo sales. There were some kind of pessimistic reports out there, but they are wrong.

The total number  of homes that sold was 245, down from 258 last year.  Only 303 condos sold in November, compared to 402 last year.

Why did Oahu condo sales drop so much?  Easy - last year at this time, the first time buyer credit was in full swing. Most of the first time buyers were condo buyers, so of course the numbers are back to normal. In November 2008, there were 195 condo sales, and in November 2009, there were 402!  So it seems the government program did work to get first time buyers into the market.

But here is what is important - Even though the sales dropped a lot in October and November, the year to date sales are still up for both homes and condos.  So far this year, 13.4% more homes have sold than last year, and 11.4% more condos have sold. 

 The median price of single family homes was basically unchanged at $585,000 compared to $590k last year.  The median price for condos roseabout the same amount, $315k compared to $310,500 last November. For the year, median prices are actually up just a bit to $595k for single family homes.

More interesting numbers

• There are 22.5% MORE pending home sales right now than last year at this time even though last  year there was a government incentive.
• It takes 42 days to sell a house, while last November it took 44 days.
• Condos took 45 days to sell, while last year they took 31 days.  Before the Federal tax credit was available lasdt year, it was taking about 52 days to sell a house. 
• Last month, home sellers last month got 96% of their list prices, compared to 93.9% a year ago.  
• The Oahu Inventory of homes for sale dropped 7.5% to 1456 available listings.
• There is a  6.1 month of inventory of Oahu homes for sale  
• The number of pending sales over $1 million rose 51.5% since last year!
• In Hawaii Kai, the median price rose 44%, from $848,500 up to$1,222,500!  
• In Makiki, the median price rose 20.1% to $907,000!
  
• North Shore median prices fell 46% (The California effect)

It has 11 bedrooms, 10 1/2 baths, 11,684 square feet of roofed living space, and it's right on one of Hawaii's best beaches in Lanikai.  This beachfront lot is nearly one acre (41,924 square feet) and has 91 feet of beach frontage.

For just $14,000,000, you can own this 1988 this resort style home, which has this large gourmet kitchen, complete with commercial style double width refrigerator, 2 dishwashers, 8 burner gas Viking range, and of course, an ocean view.  There are 2 sinks, a separate butler's pantry with prep area, and wine storage.

This is one of the 4 master suites with amazing ocean views down Lanikai beach, and the 20 foot high vaulted ceilings complete with skylights to brighten up your mornings as the sun rises over the ocean. The only problem is that the room is so big that the TV is about 20 feet away from the bed!

There are multiple slightly smaller guest suites like this one, each with lanais & ocean or garden views, wainscoting, and each with it's own private full bathroom. We wouldn't want the Presidential family to share any bathrooms with anyone would we? 

Check out the courtyard which has this very large custom pool & hot tub. Notice you can see the ocean through the house from the pool.  It looks just like a resort, and actually it's nicer than many resorts in Hawaii. I was a little surprised to see that the surface wasn't done in a nice tile. 

This is the main living room with 20 foot high windows that display the ocean view nicely. The white sand beach is just a few steps from this room.  My only complaint here - the furniture is kind of dated.

This large bathroom is about 350 square feet, larger than some studio apartments, and there is a 150 square foot lanai just off the bathroom with ocean view, which you can see in the mirror.  Notice the skylight above the bath. Sunlight is brought in as often as possible in this house, so that even though it's mansion size, it feels like a beach house.

 The Obamas ate their meals in this dining room, with palm trees waving on the beach in the background. 

This beautiful home can be yours now, as it was listed for sale this week by Choi International. There are several other properties for sale on the beach in Hawaii, but only a select few have been rented by US Presidents. 

Many of my friends and readers all over mainland America and the world are starting to experience the cold of Winter. I just saw a few people on Facebook post something about snow on the ground, cold noses, and cold houses.

I like to remind people, while their hands and feet are freezing and their cars are warming up in the snow, that

IT'S WARM ALL YEAR IN HAWAII !!! 

Today in Honolulu Hawaii, it's 85 degrees, sunny and breezy.  I'm typing this post in shorts and a T-shirt, and it's a beautiful day outside.  People are at the beach, and my wife is hiking Makapuu lighthouse with friends. 

In contrast, in Colorado Springs Co, it's 49 degrees.  In Columbus Ohio it's 35 degrees and snowing. Bozeman Montana is 32 and snowing. 

And that's why Hawaii real estate is the best and most expensive! 

Trying to get a vacation booked and squared away properly can be a
tremendous hassle for most people. Not only that, but what if you do not
want to stay at a hotel? Maybe instead you would prefer a homelier
setting for your vacation to Maui. MauiForum was opened by a pair of
software engineers with a passion for Maui and vacationing. This
website makes it easy for owners and potential renters of condos and
properties to come together. Not only are things more convenient for the
owners, but as a renter you can expect a faster reply about your
inquiry into an available rental.

All manners of rentals are available in a variety of locations across
Maui. Different places offer nightly, weekly, or monthly rentals to
better accommodate the length of time of your vacation. That gives you
the freedom to set your schedule and enjoy a personal atmosphere without
needing to buy your own condo or house.

Find a Rental

Trying to locate the right rental to make the most of your vacation can
be a bit problematic. The Find a Rental section of MauiForum.org makes
this process easier by dividing different properties by their features.
The customer can look at properties by general location, number of
bedrooms, the type of property it actually is, and look for an optimal
bathroom count.

Each listing provides the contact website for the owner of the property
as well as current rates and an easy to use Make Inquiry form for
checking availability. Thanks to the back end features developed by the
website's owners, it makes it far easier for property owners to track
their requests and respond to inquiries.

$ Special Deals

Not everything works out as initially anticipated for a would-be
vacationer. Sometimes cancellations happen or other external forces
cause changes to need to be made. The Special Deals section of
MauiForums is the place to look for last minute deals and discounts
that might be available on a rental. For those that like to be in the
immediate know, their email service will alert you when new special
deals are posted into the section once you sign up.

It may seem strange that some of these prices on these special deals are
cheaper. After all, a room is a room, right? Not quite. If the owner
does not have a paying patron in that property for a given time frame,
they are simply losing money. Therefore, it is better to offer
discounted rates on property that needs to be booked to continue to
generate revenue. A fact that you can take advantage of to get better
rates on your Maui condo rental.

Fantasy Island Activities and Tours

What would a vacation to Maui be without activities to explore it?
MauiForum.org is partnered with Fantasy Island Activities and Tours to
help their customers find fun things to do at great prices. When booking
a rental, ask for the owner's special discount code for Fantasy Island
Activities and Tours. It entitles the renter to additional discount on a
variety of activities available through the company. Whether you want
to parasail, snorkel, attend a luau, or enjoy a tour of interesting
areas; they are equipped to ensure you have a memorable Maui vacation
you will not soon forget.

Conclusion

MauiForum.org is the place to go if you are in need of a rental or are
looking to rent your Maui property out. The webmasters have built a site
that makes it easy for owners to come together with renters with
minimal fuss. A wide variety of properties in different locations makes
it easier for a renter to find the right property for their vacation.
For all the positives of MauiForum, there is but one negative; it's
not even that major of a consideration. They are losing a great
opportunity to connect with visitors to the site through the poor use of
their blog. What could be a great tool for communication sits idle most
of the time with long periods between updates. In the major scheme of
things, it is minor and bears no reflection on the functionality and
benefit that MauiForum grants owners and renters.

Mawaena Kai is one of Hawaii Kai's best marina front communities. Builtin 1988, which is much later than most other marina front complexes, Mawaena Kai has a modern feel and plenty of open spaces that lead to the beautiful marina. Most of the units come with a dock, and this 2nd floor unit has one of the best mooring spots.  

An exquisite unit that has been fully renovated, with wide marina frontage and spectacular views from every window!
The finished loft adds a bonus of 100 sq ft of living area. 

Upgrades: split AC - tiled lanais - plantation shutters - stainless
steel appliances - built-in glass cook top and convection self-cleaning
oven - quiet-close cabinetry - all premium-grade slab granite and
limestone counter tops - double sink sapele vanity in master bath and
walk-in shower  - stylish top of the line faucets, bath fixtures, and
cabinet hardware throughout - “low-sonne” contemporary bathroom ceiling
exhaust fans – office suite by Organized Hawaii in loft - Levolor
pleated Solar Day/Night track blinds in Master - brand new stain master
berber carpeting and premium interior painting – attractively furnished
and  immaculately maintained! 

Just look at the great view from the living room, right over your own private dock so you can take your boat out to the ocean! This unit was listed for $789,500 for 4 days, and my very happy clients will be closing next Friday!

On October 3, 1863, President Abraham Lincoln proclaimed the last Thursday in November as an official national holiday.  People had been celebrating it unofficially for many years, beginning at Plymouth Colony with William Bradford.  But during the civil war, Lincoln wanted Americans to be especially thankful to God for their blessings.

He wrote:

The year that is drawing towards its close, has been filled with the blessings of fruitful fields and healthful skies.  To these bounties, which are so constantly enjoyed that we are prone to forget the source from which they come, others have been added, which are of so extraordinary a nature, that they cannot fail to penetrate and soften even the heart which is habitually insensible to the ever watchful providence of Almighty God.  In the midst of a civil war of unequalled magnitude and severity, which has sometimes seemed to foreign States to invite and to provoke their aggression, peace has been preserved with all nations, order has been maintained, the laws have been respected and obeyed, and harmony has prevailed everywhere except in the theatre of military conflict; while that theatre has been greatly contracted by the advancing armies and navies of the Union.  Needful diversions of wealth and of strength from the fields of peaceful industry to the national defence, have not arrested the plough, the shuttle, or the ship; the axe had enlarged the borders of our settlements, and the mines, as well of iron and coal as of the precious metals, have yielded even more abundantly than heretofore.  Population has steadily increased, notwithstanding the waste that has been made in the camp, the siege and the battle-field; and the country, rejoicing in the consciousness of augmented strength and vigor, is permitted to expect continuance of years, with large increase of freedom.

No human counsel hath devised nor hath any mortal hand worked out these great things.  They are the gracious gifts of the Most High God, who, while dealing with us in anger for our sins, hath nevertheless remembered mercy.

It has seemed to me fit and proper that they should be solemnly, reverently and gratefully acknowledged as with one heart and voice by the whole American people.  I do therefore invite my fellow citizens in every part of the United States, and also those who are at sea and those who are sojourning in foreign lands, to set apart and observe the last Thursday of November next, as a day of Thanksgiving and Praise to our beneficent Father who dwelleth in the Heavens.   And I recommend to them that while offering up the ascriptions justly due to Him for such singular deliverances and blessings, they do also, with humble penitence for our national perverseness and disobedience, commend to his tender care all those who have become widows, orphans, mourners or sufferers in the lamentable civil strife in which we are unavoidably engaged, and fervently implore the interposition of the Almighty Hand to heal the wounds of the nation and to restore it as soon as may be consistent with the Divine purposes to the full enjoyment of peace, harmony, tranquillity and Union.

In testimony whereof, I have hereunto set my hand, and caused the seal of the United States to be affixed.

Done at the city of Washington, this third day of October, in the year of our Lord one thousand eight hundred and sixty-three, and of the independence of the United States the eighty-eighth.

A. Lincoln"

I'm currently reading "Dying of Money: Lessons of the Great German and American Inflations."  It's a very insightful and fact filled book which is part history and part economics lessons.  Readers will learn mucuh about Keynesian economics, which in part caused the downfall of Germany's paper money and the massive hyper-inflation that resulted.

In short, Keynsian economics says the governments should intervene in recessions by printing money and lowering interest rates, in order to stimulate the economy.  Sound familiar? Bernanke and Obama are strict Keynsian economists. 

In the 1920's, "When the debacle was finally stopped, the old (German) mark, which had once been worth a solid 23 cents, was written off at one trillion old marks to one new one of the same par value. The most spectacular part of that loss was lost in the mark's final dizzy skid; all the marks that existed in the world in the summer of 1922 (190 billion of them) were not worth enough... to buy a single newspaper or a tram ticket."

The US if following EXACTLY the same political and economic patterns as 1920's Germany. The most important lesson for individuals (as opposed to politicians and government bodies) is to see what people did who survived and even profited from the chaos of hyper-inflation.

While money had no value, some things actually grew in value.  While most people lost their entire savings (since money was worthless) and stocks crashed, some people made forturnes. The 2 categories that actually grew in value were: 

• Commodities  - gold, silver, metals, agriculture, raw materials
• "Real estate is a classic hedge against inflation. The name is apt. Real estate is a real value. The intrinsic value of real estate is indestructible... If a man owns a piece of land to live on, it is equally good for living on before, during, or after an inflation. Its intrinsic value for living on is not affected by prices, even land prices."

It's a great book. Not an easy read, but worth every minute. It's available to read online here.

Time to start buying up Hawaii real estate?

I'm often asked if Oahu is a safe place to live. Well here some great news for Honolulu. CQ press has taken the 2009 FBI crime data and compiled lists of the safest and most dangerous cities in America.  Honolulu is the 2nd safest city over 500,000.  

CITIES OF 500,000 OR MORE POPULATION (34 CITIES)
Lowest Crime Rate Ranking 

1. El Paso, TX
2. Honolulu, HI
3. New York, NY
4. San Jose, CA
5. San Diego, CA
6. Austin, TX
7. Portland, OR
8. Los Angeles, CA
9. Seattle, WA
10. Fort Worth, TX 

On the flip side, these are the 10 Highest Crime Rate Rankings

1. Detroit, MI
2. Baltimore, MD
3. Memphis, TN
4. Washington, DC
5. Atlanta, GA
Indianapolis, IN
7. Philadelphia, PA
8. Milwaukee, WI
9. Houston, TX
10. Columbus, OH

Here is the report